CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-01-31T16:34:00-CME-001)

## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - CME
##
## Message Issue Date: 2014-02-01T13:45:54Z
## Message ID: 20140201-AL-001
## Summary:
C-type CME detected by SOHO / STEREO B.
Start time of the event: 2014-01-31T16:34Z.
Estimated speed: ~728 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: 40 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -32/10 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates (see [1] in Notes).
Activity ID: 2014-01-31T16:34:00-CME-001
Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect MESSENGER. The leading edge of the CME will reach MESSENGER at 2014-02-01T11:06Z (plus minus 7 hours).
The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2014-02-03T16:42Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2014-01-31T16:34:00-CME-001):
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140131_224700_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140131_224700_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140131_224700_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140131_224700_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140131_224700_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20140131_224700_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
## Notes:
[1] http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/wiki/index.php/Glossary/Heliospheric_Earth_Equatorial_coordinates
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score
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